The first team to 20 points could win the Orange Bowl and play for the national championship.
The other half of the College Football Playoff national semifinals has shootout potential. Ohio State has scored a combined 83 points through two playoff games and Texas has scored 78, with a little help from two overtimes in the Peach Bowl win against Arizona State.
Things between Penn State and Notre Dame should be a little slower, a little more plodding and a lot more reliant on the play of two elite defenses.
Penn State has allowed 24 points through two playoff games. Against Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl, the Nittany Lions did what seemed to be impossible: contain All-America running back Ashton Jeanty. He finished with a season-low 104 rushing yards. Penn State’s defense also managed to score two touchdown in a dominant defeat of SMU in the first round.
Notre Dame held Indiana out of the end zone until two meaningless scores with minutes left in the fourth quarter and limited Georgia to just 62 rushing yards and 4.9 yards per play.
Look for these defenses to define the Orange Bowl. Here are the key factors that will determine which team goes on to play for the national championship:
Riley Leonard vs. Drew Allar
Neither has been outstanding in the playoff. Leonard completed 23 of 32 attempts for 201 yards against the Hoosiers but only 3.8 yards per attempt against Georgia, though he did run for a team-high 80 yards in the 23-10 win. Allar has been inaccurate, hitting on 27 of 50 attempts, but had three touchdowns without an interception against the Broncos.
The Nittany Lions have shown they can win when the passing game struggles to connect. But turnovers could be fatal: Penn State is 2-2 when Allar throws at least one interception, with the two wins coming by a combined 10 points against Bowling Green and Southern California.
Notre Dame trusts Leonard — the former Duke transfer has earned that with his toughness, leadership and grasp of the scheme — but the offense runs smoothest when he takes a back seat to the running game. The Fighting Irish are averaging 30.3 points per game when attempting 30 or more passes, an average inflated by a 52-point outburst against Florida State, and 39.9 points per game when making fewer than 30 attempts.
Which defense wins up front?
Penn State’s performance against Boise State showed the strength of what may be the Bowl Subdivision’s best run defense. That came against the Broncos’ offensive line, however; Notre Dame’s offensive front will present a different type of challenge.
But it’s clear that whichever team wins the battle on the line of scrimmage will win the Orange Bowl.
Penn State has allowed 1,513 rushing yards on 492 carries, or 3.1 yards per carry. Five opponents have cracked the 100-yard mark, led by Southern California’s 189 yards on 7.9 yards per carry — most of that damage came on a 75-yard scoring run in the first quarter. The Nittany Lions have held five teams under 75 yards on the ground.
Notre Dame has given up 1,791 yards on 3.6 yards per carry in one fewer game. Like the Nittany Lions, the Irish struggled against USC, allowing 197 yards and two scores, and gave up 190 yards in September’s shocking loss to Northern Illinois.
But Notre Dame’s numbers are also impacted by two games against service academies: Navy ran for 222 yards and Army for 207 yards, though they lost by a combined 72 points. And the Irish held the Black Knights nearly 100 yards below their FBS-best per-game average.
UP AND DOWN: Winners and losers from college football bowl season
Who makes a big play downfield?
Neither team is adept at developing explosive plays in the passing game.
Penn State is tied for 86th nationally with 15 receptions of 30 or more yards and ranks 108th with just four gains of 40 or more yards. Notre Dame is even worse, at 130th with four passing plays of 30-plus yards and tied for 126th with one completion of 40-plus.
The Irish have overcome this lack of punch with one of the nation’s most explosive running games. They rank fourth nationally with 11 gains on the ground of 40 or more yards and are one of just eight teams in the FBS with a 90-yard gain.
In a game that will be played on the line of scrimmage, the ability to deliver one big gain downfield could change the complexion of the Orange Bowl, forcing the opposing defense to devote more resources to the back end and freeing things up inside the box.