Texas and Ohio State meet in the Cotton Bowl having taken two different paths into the semifinals of the College Football Playoff — one with a pair of eye-opening blowouts, the other by surviving and advancing through a double-overtime thriller in the quarterfinals.
There’s no doubt the Buckeyes have been the most impressive playoff team through two rounds. After ripping through Tennessee to open the tournament, Ohio State avenged a regular-season loss to Oregon by taking a 34-0 lead in the Rose Bowl on the way to an easy 41-21 win.
Texas didn’t have too much through against Clemson in the opening round, though the Tigers did crawl within a touchdown in the second half. Things were far more difficult in the Peach Bowl against Arizona State. Down 24-8 in the fourth quarter, the Sun Devils came back to force overtime but lost 39-31 in the second extra frame.
Ohio State will look to continue this torrid run with another marquee win against the last team standing from the SEC. The Longhorns can make an epic statement by stopping the Buckeyes’ seemingly unstoppable march to the national championship.
Either way, the consensus is that the winner will be favored in the championship game against the winner of the Orange Bowl between Penn State and Notre Dame.
Here are the three factors that will determine the Cotton Bowl:
Can Quinn Ewers keep this up?
Ewers has spent most of this regular season scrutinized for his production while backup quarterback Arch Manning looms over his shoulder, with the redshirt freshman playing well enough in limited spurts to ask the question: Is Ewers the best option for the Longhorns?
That question should be put to rest after his performance in the Peach Bowl. With the running game sputtering, Ewers had one of the best games of his college career — and easily his best game since putting up five touchdowns against Florida in early November — by completing 20 of 30 attempts for 332 yards and three touchdowns against one interception, highlighted by a near-perfect drive to set up a missed field goal to end regulation and two picture-perfect scoring strikes in overtime.
Texas simply operates at a higher level when Ewers’ production matches his potential. Against Ohio State, he’ll need to carry over his play to keep the Longhorns on track to win what should be a high-scoring game against one of the best offenses in the Bowl Subdivision.
Can Ohio State be stopped?
Tennessee’s defense allowed more than 400 yards just twice during the regular season and held all but two opponents under 5.9 yards per play. All the Buckeyes did was racked up 473 yards on 7.4 yards per play. Against Oregon, Ohio State put together one of the best performances by an offense in Rose Bowl history with 500 yards on 8.8 yards per play.
Clearly, this offense has turned the page on another miserable loss to Michigan. And the Buckeyes have done so in part by shying away from the meat-and-potatoes gameplan that flopped against the Wolverines in favor of a more wide-open style predicated on elite receiver play from Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka. Smith had 187 yards and two scores against Oregon and Egbuka has a combined 10 grabs for 153 yards in two playoff games.
But keying on stopping Will Howard and these receivers would open things up for TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, who through 14 games have combined for 1,849 yards and 20 touchdowns on 6.2 yards per carry.
While the Texas defense was seen as an asset heading into the Peach Bowl, the Sun Devils became just the second team to run for more than 200 yards on the Longhorns since 2021 and the first to have 500 yards of offense since last year’s loss to Washington in the national semifinals.
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Can the SEC beat the Big Ten?
Not in this postseason. In addition to the Buckeyes’ win against Tennessee, the Big Ten is 3-1 in traditional bowl games against the SEC: Southern California beat Texas A&M in the Las Vegas Bowl, Michigan beat Alabama in the ReliaQuest Bowl, Illinois topped South Carolina in the Citrus Bowl and Iowa lost by a field goal to Missouri in the Music City Bowl.
These results will color the perception of which league rules the FBS. This year, that conference is clearly the Big Ten. But what does that tell us about the Cotton Bowl?
Maybe nothing. But heading into another pairing between these two powerhouse leagues, it’s impossible to ignore how the Big Ten has owned the postseason at the cost of the SEC’s national reputation.