In the capital of Transnistria, a self-declared microstate sandwiched between Moldova and Ukraine, the festive New Year’s lights have gone dark ahead of schedule. This separatist sliver of Moldova will run out of energy in three weeks, the head of its Russia-backed government has said.
Once proud, go-it-alone and richer than their neighbors in Moldova proper, Transnistrians are now burning wood to keep warm through hours-long blackouts as winter bites.
The crunch began when Moscow stopped pumping natural gas through pipelines in Ukraine to Europe. Transnistrian officials have declared a state of emergency. They say their region is facing “not only an energy crisis, but a humanitarian one.” Analysts say this understates the problem, which has raised questions about the future of the de facto state.
Here’s what you need to know.
How did the crisis start?
For years, Russian gas flowed through Ukraine to Moldova and elsewhere in Europe. The last transit agreement with Kyiv, signed before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, was due to expire on January 1. Ukraine said for months it would not renew the agreement – and made good on its promise.
Some countries prepared for this. Austria said it did its “homework” and now sources gas elsewhere. Hungary and Slovakia have also found alternative, much costlier, supplies.
Transnistria did not. After splitting from Moldova in 1990 as the Soviet Union crumbled, Transnistria has relied entirely on Russian gas – delivered through Ukraine’s pipelines, mostly free of charge – to keep the lights on.
That’s over. With Russia unwilling to send gas via other routes, Transnistria is going dark.
How has Transnistria been affected?
Home to more than 300,000 people – mostly Russian speakers – Transnistria celebrated Orthodox Christmas on Tuesday. The usually festive occasion was interrupted by the region’s self-proclaimed government announcing daily eight-hour power outages.
The government said it took the decision after electricity consumption had jumped fourfold in recent days. With no gas to keep homes warm, residents had turned to electric heaters – putting huge strain on the region’s creaking power grid.
“The system created during the Soviet period… is not coping,” President Vadim Krasnoselsky said at a meeting of the region’s energy council on Monday. He urged residents to use electric heating “selectively.”
Videos posted online show a glimpse of how residents are coping. Transnistrians are cooking meals on electric mini-stoves and burning firewood and coal to heat their homes. Hot water is now supplied on a strict schedule, causing some to boil water in kettles and take showers using buckets.
Some alternative heating methods have proved hazardous. Orthodox Christmas was marked by two cases of carbon monoxide poisoning, one of them fatal.
On Tuesday, a family of four in the city of Bendery, including a 7-year-old child, fell ill due to fumes from a gas water heater. They were treated and released in a stable condition. The following night in the capital, Tiraspol, a woman died while showering in a poorly-ventilated apartment where a chimneyless gas water heater was in use, according to the region’s Ministry of Internal Affairs.
Unable to keep classrooms warm, schools and colleges have extended the winter vacation until January 20, far later than scheduled. Many kindergartens have not reopened after the holidays. The ones that have are burning firewood for heating.
Sergey Obolonik, minister for economic development, said Wednesday that the region’s gas reserves will last for another 24 days.
Has Moldova also been hit?
Yes, but not as badly. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Moldova was almost entirely reliant on Russian gas. But a few months into the war, Russia’s energy giant Gazprom sharply cut gas supplies to the country and hiked its prices, citing unpaid debts.
Moldovan officials were perplexed – and some cried foul, describing the move as an attempt to “blackmail” the country for a pivot towards the West. With winter approaching, Moldova swiftly arranged energy supplies from Europe.
Despite ending gas purchases from Russia, it still bought large amounts of its energy from Transnistria, which uses Russian gas to generate electricity at the Cuciurgan power plant.
Now Russian gas supplies have been cut off, that plant is producing vastly less energy. Moldova has had to buy from emergency European markets – mostly via Romania – at nearly twice the price.
Further costs are on the horizon, too. Moldova’s government in Chisinau, led by the recently re-elected pro-Western President Maia Sandu, has said it will provide support to residents fleeing from the freezing temperatures and energy shortages in Transnistria.
Will Transnistria accept help from Chisinau?
Chisinau has offered to sell gas and energy to Transnistria, although officials in Tiraspol show little sign of accepting the offer.
The main reason is economic. Unlike Moscow, Chisinau is not proposing to send gas for free. After 30 years of abundant, low-cost energy, Transnistrians would now have to pay the same rate as those in Moldova proper.
Another reason is political. After decades of proclaiming its independence from Moldova, to be seen accepting “help” from it would be akin to admitting failure.
Instead, Tiraspol is attempting to pin the crisis on Chisinau. Krasnoselsky has accused Moldova of trying to “strangle” the region and force it to renounce its claims to statehood.
What’s Russia’s role?
Russia could provide gas to Transnistria but is choosing not to. Although it can no longer transit gas through Ukraine, other pipelines are available under the Black Sea via Turkey, albeit at a higher cost than before.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday that the situation is “critical,” but added that “the decisions of Ukraine and the Moldovan authorities” had “deprived” Transnistria of natural gas.
Peskov said some European countries, including Slovakia, still wanted Russia’s “more competitive” supplies. He also criticized the United States for profiting from the crisis, saying it had boosted its costlier gas exports to Europe.
Russia may also stand to gain from declining to end the energy crisis in Transnistria – whose people it claims to support.
Russia has long worked to destabilize Moldova, most recently in its presidential election in October, which was framed as a choice between Moscow and the West.
Although Sandu clung on in October, Moldova has parliamentary elections later this year. The crisis in Transnistria – which could prompt thousands of residents to flee across the border – provides Russia with an opportunity to sow more chaos in Moldova, Popescu warned.
“Russia doesn’t care much about residents in Transnistria. It has the goal of destabilizing the Moldovan economy, political system and social fabric. It doesn’t care about Transnistrians freezing in winter,” he said.
Why did Ukraine not renew the gas transit agreement?
Ukraine was widely expected to let the agreement lapse, sensing an opportunity to inflict costs on Russia and its allies.
After Russian gas stopped flowing through Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky called the move “one of Moscow’s greatest defeats.” He accused the Kremlin of using energy as a “weapon” with which to blackmail its partners.
Although Ukraine now faces a loss of some $800 million a year in transit fees from Russia, Gazprom stands to lose far more, at up to $5 billion a year in sales, according to Reuters.
Russian officials have responded furiously to the move. Russia’s Embassy in Moldova said Kyiv had “cynically” stopped the flow of gas to “condemn the population of Transnistria to suffering.” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova called the decision “bullying and neo-Nazism.”
Pistrinciuc, director of the ISI think tank, said he hoped these narratives did not take hold among Transnistrians. He said the crisis might make some confront what he described as the reality of their situation: “It’s a very isolated region… We hope that they see the impotence of this type of unrecognized state.”